Re: genetic genealogy

["John S. Quarterman" <jsq@mids.org>]

>Giving the quiz the once over and realizing how difficult it would be to 
>trace families who were prolific breeders, I gave thanks that my ancestors 
>usually had no more than 3 children per family unit. THEN, I started thinking 
>if each of those 3 had 3. . . . Well, you know where it goes from there.
>
>It's no wonder world population has become a "problem." I wish I could 
>remember the name of the speaker, but I can't; anyway, this man said that if 
>we limited each couple to 2 children, we would eventually dwindle back to the 
>1970s population which, according to him, was just right for the disbursement 
>of natural resources without a shortage.

It's interesting how everybody's golden age seems to be 20-30 years ago.
In the 1960s the golden age was the 1940s (not the 1930s, which had the
Depression).  In the 1970s, it was the 1950s, etc.

>It will never happen. There are too many religions that support large 
>families: "Be fruitful and multiply."

Actually, even though Italy contains the Vatican, head office of the Catholic
Church, which prohibits birth control, nonetheless Italy has an annual growth
rate of -0.08%, and may well end up having a population similar to what
it had in 1970 within a few decades.

Several other European countries have negative population growth rates,
and very few of them have positive growth rates more than 1%.

The U.S. currently (as of 1999) has a growth rate of 0.85%, and it's only
that high because of immigration.

The world as a whole has only a 1.3% growth rate, which is well down from
the growth rate of only a decade ago.

(The above numbers come from the 1999 CIA World Factbook.)

World population as a whole looks likely to level off at around 10M
within 50 years, exact estimates depending on which source you believe.

> It's too bad the ancient 
>lawmakers/priests didn't give this more thought. Alas, I too am guilty of 
>adding to the "problem." I had 3 of the little darlings myself. Does my dog 
>count? Make that 4. She's as much a part of the family as the children. But 
>she's spayed. And before you start, no, I'm not advocating neutering humans. 
>Although, when it comes to habitual criminals. . . . Ah, nevermind.
>
>Johnnye St. Clair-Gerhardt
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