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Dear Joe, The problem with Henry we now face is a lack of new evidence to test the working hypothesis. Nothing can progress until we find new information, or old evidence is presented in a different way.. The causal chain is sound, if the preconditions are accepted. There is doubt both ways, only an acceptance and assessment of certain events produces conclusions. Other preconditions, if accepted, can lead to radically different conclusions. The events necessary to form valid preconditions are unclear. We can find syllogistic truth but not existential import. The why Henry went, to me, is the big question. Answer that and everything else falls into place. Your hypothetical event 4 'Henry sails back to Caithness / Orkney.' is a real puzzle. Since we can not establish where and when Henry died could it have been Nova Scotia? Your event 2 Henry could have wintered the ships in the New World. Back to modern day concerns, the 2002 UK Durex Report has just be released. 3,800 adults aged 16 to 55 were questioned. The Durex report found that the Scots have sex an average of 122 times a year. That is 11% more than the UK average of 110. Outside of the glorious 12th this report is the only thing I have found to recommend the climate in Scotland. Sinclair ----- Original Message ----- From: "Joe Erkes" <erkesjoe@nycap.rr.com> To: <sinclair@quarterman.org>